Sportist G.Toshevo 5–1 Botev Novi Pazar

Sportist G.Toshevo

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Botev Novi Pazar

8/13/2022

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 1Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo51%

×Draw21%

Botev Novi Pazar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportist G.ToshevoExpected goals in this matchBotev Novi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.63

Sportist G.Toshevo

2.22

Botev Novi Pazar

1.63

Sportist G.Toshevo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 90 away

1.46

creates per match

0.77

2.49

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo

1.46

Botev Novi Pazar

0.77

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo

2.49

Botev Novi Pazar

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw

71%

Sportist G.Toshevo or Botev Novi Pazar

79%

Draw or Botev Novi Pazar

49%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+

30%

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals

89%

Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals

65%

Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals

38%

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals

80%

Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals

48%

Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)

64%

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.22

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more

51%

level

21%

Botev Novi Pazar scores more

29%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff