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Sporting vs Bubali — Division di Honor 2019

Sporting
Sporting
FT
2 – 2
Bubali
Bubali
4/26/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Winners Stage - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sporting51%
×Draw20%
Bubali30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting
2.42
Bubali
1.83

Sporting creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sporting
1.60
Bubali
1.77

allows per match

Sporting
1.90
Bubali
3.23

finishing

Sporting+0.00on par
Bubali+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting ↓

Bubali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Sporting or draw
70%
Sporting or Bubali
80%
Draw or Bubali
49%

Winning margin

Sporting wins by 2+
31%
Bubali wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting 1+ goals
91%
Sporting 2+ goals
69%
Sporting 3+ goals
43%
Bubali 1+ goals
84%
Bubali 2+ goals
54%
Bubali 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sporting (draw refunded)
63%
Bubali (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Bubali away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting attack 1.60 + Bubali defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.42

Bubali attack 1.77 + Sporting defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sporting scores more
51%
level
20%
Bubali scores more
30%

Sporting at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting vs Bubali

Sporting and Bubali drew 2-2 in Division di Honor on April 26, 2026.