Sporting 2–1 Britannia: Result & Stats

Sporting

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Britannia

5/2/2026

Division di Honor · Winners Stage - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sporting27%

×Draw21%

Britannia52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SportingExpected goals in this matchBritannia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.06

Sporting

1.44

Britannia

2.06

Britannia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 67 away

1.60

creates per match

2.22

1.90

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sporting

1.60

Britannia

2.22

allows per match

Sporting

1.90

Britannia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting+0.00on par

Britannia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting ↓

Britannia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sporting or draw

48%

Sporting or Britannia

79%

Draw or Britannia

73%

Winning margin

Sporting wins by 2+

12%

Britannia wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Sporting 1+ goals

76%

Sporting 2+ goals

42%

Sporting 3+ goals

18%

Britannia 1+ goals

87%

Britannia 2+ goals

61%

Britannia 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Sporting (draw refunded)

34%

Britannia (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Britannia away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting attack 1.60 + Britannia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Britannia attack 2.22 + Sporting defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting scores more

27%

level

21%

Britannia scores more

52%

Britannia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff