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Sporting Trestieni vs Sucleia — League #395 2026

Sporting Trestieni
Sporting Trestieni
FT
7 – 0
Sucleia
Sucleia
4/22/2023League #395League #395 · 2nd Phase - 6Teren sintetic Nisporeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Trestieni95%
×Draw4%
Sucleia2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Trestieni
5.00
Sucleia
0.67

Sporting Trestieni creates 646% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sporting Trestieni
5.00
Sucleia
0.67

allows per match

Sporting Trestieni
0.67
Sucleia
5.00

finishing

Sporting Trestieni+0.00on par
Sucleia+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Trestieni ↓

Sucleia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Sporting Trestieni or draw
98%
Sporting Trestieni or Sucleia
96%
Draw or Sucleia
5%

Winning margin

Sporting Trestieni wins by 2+
86%
Sucleia wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Sporting Trestieni 1+ goals
99%
Sporting Trestieni 2+ goals
95%
Sporting Trestieni 3+ goals
84%
Sucleia 1+ goals
49%
Sucleia 2+ goals
15%
Sucleia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Trestieni (draw refunded)
98%
Sucleia (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Trestieni at home — creates 5.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sucleia away — creates 0.67, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Trestieni attack 5.00 + Sucleia defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 5.00

Sucleia attack 0.67 + Sporting Trestieni defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Sporting Trestieni scores more
95%
level
4%
Sucleia scores more
2%

Sporting Trestieni at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Sporting Trestieni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Sporting Trestieni 7–0 Sucleia

Sporting Trestieni beat Sucleia 7-0 in League #395 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Teren sintetic Nisporeni in Nisporeni.