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Sporting San Jose vs Curridabat FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
FT
2 – 2
Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
8/8/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 3Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sporting San Jose58%
×Draw21%
Curridabat FC21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Jose
2.02
Curridabat FC
1.14

Sporting San Jose creates 77% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sporting San Jose
2.11
Curridabat FC
1.38

allows per match

Sporting San Jose
0.89
Curridabat FC
1.94

finishing

Sporting San Jose+0.00on par
Curridabat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Jose ↓

Curridabat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sporting San Jose or draw
79%
Sporting San Jose or Curridabat FC
79%
Draw or Curridabat FC
42%

Winning margin

Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
34%
Curridabat FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
87%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
60%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
33%
Curridabat FC 1+ goals
68%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
32%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
73%
Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Jose at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Curridabat FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Jose attack 2.11 + Curridabat FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.02

Curridabat FC attack 1.38 + Sporting San Jose defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sporting San Jose scores more
58%
level
21%
Curridabat FC scores more
21%

Sporting San Jose at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Sporting San Jose 2–2 Curridabat FC

Sporting San Jose and Curridabat FC drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on August 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca (San José).