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Curridabat FC vs Sporting San Jose — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
1 – 3
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
1/11/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio ST Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC31%
×Draw28%
Sporting San Jose41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.06
Sporting San Jose
1.27

Sporting San Jose creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
Sporting San Jose
1.31

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
Sporting San Jose
1.03

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

Sporting San Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
59%
Curridabat FC or Sporting San Jose
72%
Draw or Sporting San Jose
69%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
12%
Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
65%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
29%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
9%
Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
72%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
36%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
43%
Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sporting San Jose attack 1.31 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
31%
level
28%
Sporting San Jose scores more
41%

Sporting San Jose at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Curridabat FC 1–3 Sporting San Jose

Sporting San Jose beat Curridabat FC 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio ST Center in San José.