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Sporting San Jose vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
FT
2 – 1
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
1/18/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sporting San Jose63%
×Draw21%
AS Puma Generalena16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Jose
2.00
AS Puma Generalena
0.91

Sporting San Jose creates 120% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sporting San Jose
2.08
AS Puma Generalena
0.92

allows per match

Sporting San Jose
0.89
AS Puma Generalena
1.93

finishing

Sporting San Jose+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Jose ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sporting San Jose or draw
84%
Sporting San Jose or AS Puma Generalena
79%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
37%

Winning margin

Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
38%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
86%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
59%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
32%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
60%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
23%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
79%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Jose at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Jose attack 2.08 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Sporting San Jose defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sporting San Jose scores more
63%
level
21%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
16%

Sporting San Jose at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting San Jose vs AS Puma Generalena

Sporting San Jose beat AS Puma Generalena 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.