Sporting Paulinense 1–0 Gremio Osasco Audax

Sporting Paulinense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gremio Osasco Audax

Unknown 40'

6/14/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sporting Paulinense32%

×Draw27%

Gremio Osasco Audax42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting PaulinenseExpected goals in this matchGremio Osasco Audax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.38

Sporting Paulinense

1.17

Gremio Osasco Audax

1.38

Gremio Osasco Audax creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.43

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sporting Paulinense

1.00

Gremio Osasco Audax

1.33

allows per match

Sporting Paulinense

1.43

Gremio Osasco Audax

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Paulinense+0.00on par

Gremio Osasco Audax+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Paulinense ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Paulinense or draw

58%

Sporting Paulinense or Gremio Osasco Audax

73%

Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax

68%

Winning margin

Sporting Paulinense wins by 2+

13%

Gremio Osasco Audax wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sporting Paulinense 1+ goals

69%

Sporting Paulinense 2+ goals

33%

Sporting Paulinense 3+ goals

11%

Gremio Osasco Audax 1+ goals

75%

Gremio Osasco Audax 2+ goals

40%

Gremio Osasco Audax 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sporting Paulinense (draw refunded)

43%

Gremio Osasco Audax (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Paulinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Paulinense attack 1.00 + Gremio Osasco Audax defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gremio Osasco Audax attack 1.33 + Sporting Paulinense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting Paulinense scores more

32%

level

27%

Gremio Osasco Audax scores more

42%

Gremio Osasco Audax at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Missed penalty

40'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff