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Sporting Mertzig vs Mamer — Cup 2020

Sporting Mertzig
Sporting Mertzig
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Mamer
Mamer
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain an de Burwiesen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting Mertzig13%
×Draw16%
Mamer72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Mertzig
1.08
Mamer
2.75

Mamer creates 155% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sporting Mertzig
1.00
Mamer
1.50

allows per match

Sporting Mertzig
4.00
Mamer
1.17

finishing

Sporting Mertzig+0.00on par
Mamer+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Mertzig ↓

Mamer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sporting Mertzig or draw
28%
Sporting Mertzig or Mamer
84%
Draw or Mamer
87%

Winning margin

Sporting Mertzig wins by 2+
4%
Mamer wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Sporting Mertzig 1+ goals
66%
Sporting Mertzig 2+ goals
29%
Sporting Mertzig 3+ goals
10%
Mamer 1+ goals
93%
Mamer 2+ goals
75%
Mamer 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Sporting Mertzig (draw refunded)
15%
Mamer (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Mertzig at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

Mamer away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Mertzig attack 1.00 + Mamer defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mamer attack 1.50 + Sporting Mertzig defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sporting Mertzig scores more
13%
level
16%
Mamer scores more
72%

Mamer at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Mamer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Mertzig vs Mamer

Mamer beat Sporting Mertzig 4-1 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain an de Burwiesen in Mertzig.