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Sporting Mertzig vs Alisontia Steinsel — Cup 2020

Sporting Mertzig
Sporting Mertzig
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Alisontia Steinsel
Alisontia Steinseladvanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting Mertzig9%
×Draw12%
Alisontia Steinsel79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Mertzig
1.13
Alisontia Steinsel
3.44

Alisontia Steinsel creates 204% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sporting Mertzig
1.00
Alisontia Steinsel
2.88

allows per match

Sporting Mertzig
4.00
Alisontia Steinsel
1.25

finishing

Sporting Mertzig+0.00on par
Alisontia Steinsel+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Mertzig ↓

Alisontia Steinsel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sporting Mertzig or draw
21%
Sporting Mertzig or Alisontia Steinsel
88%
Draw or Alisontia Steinsel
91%

Winning margin

Sporting Mertzig wins by 2+
3%
Alisontia Steinsel wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Sporting Mertzig 1+ goals
68%
Sporting Mertzig 2+ goals
31%
Sporting Mertzig 3+ goals
11%
Alisontia Steinsel 1+ goals
97%
Alisontia Steinsel 2+ goals
85%
Alisontia Steinsel 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Sporting Mertzig (draw refunded)
10%
Alisontia Steinsel (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Mertzig at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

Alisontia Steinsel away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Mertzig attack 1.00 + Alisontia Steinsel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alisontia Steinsel attack 2.88 + Sporting Mertzig defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sporting Mertzig scores more
9%
level
12%
Alisontia Steinsel scores more
79%

Alisontia Steinsel at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Alisontia Steinsel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sporting Mertzig 2–3 Alisontia Steinsel

Alisontia Steinsel beat Sporting Mertzig 3-2 in Cup on September 21, 2025.