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Sporting Macau vs Jia Hua — Primeira Divisão 2026

Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
FT
3 – 6
Jia Hua
Jia Hua
3/8/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 2Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Macau15%
×Draw14%
Jia Hua71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Macau
1.52
Jia Hua
3.34

Jia Hua creates 120% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sporting Macau
1.45
Jia Hua
3.32

allows per match

Sporting Macau
3.36
Jia Hua
1.60

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par
Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

Jia Hua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw
29%
Sporting Macau or Jia Hua
86%
Draw or Jia Hua
85%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+
6%
Jia Hua wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals
78%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
20%
Jia Hua 1+ goals
96%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
84%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
17%
Jia Hua (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 3.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sporting Macau scores more
15%
level
14%
Jia Hua scores more
71%

Jia Hua at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Sporting Macau 3–6 Jia Hua

Jia Hua beat Sporting Macau 6-3 in Primeira Divisão on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.