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Jia Hua vs Sporting Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
1 – 0
Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
6/22/2024Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 4Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jia Hua84%
×Draw10%
Sporting Macau6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
3.72
Sporting Macau
1.01

Jia Hua creates 268% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Sporting Macau
0.86

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Sporting Macau
4.93

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Sporting Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
94%
Jia Hua or Sporting Macau
90%
Draw or Sporting Macau
16%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
68%
Sporting Macau wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
97%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
88%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
69%
Sporting Macau 1+ goals
64%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
27%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
93%
Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.72

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Jia Hua scores more
84%
level
10%
Sporting Macau scores more
6%

Jia Hua at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Jia Hua 1–0 Sporting Macau

Jia Hua beat Sporting Macau 1-0 in Primeira Divisão on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.