Sporting Macau 0–7 CPK: Result & Stats

Sporting Macau

FT

0 – 7

CPK

4/15/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 7Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Macau6%

×Draw9%

CPK86%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting MacauExpected goals in this matchCPK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

4.17

Sporting Macau

1.10

CPK

4.17

CPK creates 279% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

1.45

creates per match

4.97

3.36

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Sporting Macau

1.45

CPK

4.97

allows per match

Sporting Macau

3.36

CPK

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par

CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

CPK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw

14%

Sporting Macau or CPK

91%

Draw or CPK

94%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+

2%

CPK wins by 2+

71%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals

67%

Sporting Macau 2+ goals

30%

Sporting Macau 3+ goals

10%

CPK 1+ goals

98%

CPK 2+ goals

91%

CPK 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)

6%

CPK (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

CPK attack 4.97 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 4.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Sporting Macau scores more

6%

level

9%

CPK scores more

86%

CPK at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff