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Sporting Macau vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
FT
1 – 3
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
3/23/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 4Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Macau19%
×Draw18%
Cheng Fung63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Macau
1.41
Cheng Fung
2.63

Cheng Fung creates 87% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sporting Macau
1.45
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Sporting Macau
3.36
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw
37%
Sporting Macau or Cheng Fung
82%
Draw or Cheng Fung
81%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+
8%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals
76%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
41%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
17%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
93%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
73%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
23%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sporting Macau scores more
19%
level
18%
Cheng Fung scores more
63%

Cheng Fung at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Macau vs Cheng Fung

Cheng Fung beat Sporting Macau 3-1 in Primeira Divisão on March 23, 2023.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.