Sporting Lagos 1–0 Rivers United: Result & Stats

Sporting Lagos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rivers United

C. Naantaum 52'

2/14/2024

NPFL · Round 13Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos54%

×Draw27%

Rivers United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting LagosExpected goals in this matchRivers United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.70

Sporting Lagos

1.42

Rivers United

0.70

Sporting Lagos creates 103% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 131 away

1.63

creates per match

0.72

0.68

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sporting Lagos

1.63

Rivers United

0.72

allows per match

Sporting Lagos

0.68

Rivers United

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Rivers United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw

82%

Sporting Lagos or Rivers United

73%

Draw or Rivers United

46%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+

27%

Rivers United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Lagos 2+ goals

41%

Sporting Lagos 3+ goals

17%

Rivers United 1+ goals

50%

Rivers United 2+ goals

16%

Rivers United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)

75%

Rivers United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more

54%

level

27%

Rivers United scores more

18%

Sporting Lagos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

45'

52'

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff