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Sporting Lagos vs Bayelsa United — NPFL 2019

Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
12/21/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 15Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos58%
×Draw26%
Bayelsa United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Lagos
1.52
Bayelsa United
0.65

Sporting Lagos creates 134% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sporting Lagos
1.63
Bayelsa United
0.61

allows per match

Sporting Lagos
0.68
Bayelsa United
1.41

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par
Bayelsa United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Bayelsa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw
84%
Sporting Lagos or Bayelsa United
74%
Draw or Bayelsa United
42%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
31%
Bayelsa United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
78%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
20%
Bayelsa United 1+ goals
48%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
14%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
79%
Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Bayelsa United away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Bayelsa United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bayelsa United attack 0.61 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more
58%
level
26%
Bayelsa United scores more
16%

Sporting Lagos at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Sporting Lagos 1–1 Bayelsa United

Sporting Lagos and Bayelsa United drew 1-1 in NPFL on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.