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Sporting Lagos vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
2/28/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 22Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos56%
×Draw27%
Akwa United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Lagos
1.46
Akwa United
0.67

Sporting Lagos creates 118% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Sporting Lagos
1.63
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Sporting Lagos
0.68
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw
83%
Sporting Lagos or Akwa United
73%
Draw or Akwa United
44%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
29%
Akwa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
77%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
43%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
18%
Akwa United 1+ goals
49%
Akwa United 2+ goals
15%
Akwa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
77%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more
56%
level
27%
Akwa United scores more
17%

Sporting Lagos at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Lagos vs Akwa United

Sporting Lagos beat Akwa United 2-1 in NPFL on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.