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Sporting Khalsa W vs Loughborough Lightning — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sporting Khalsa W
Sporting Khalsa W
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Loughborough Lightning
Loughborough Lightning
10/26/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sporting Khalsa W46%
×Draw21%
Loughborough Lightning33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Khalsa W
2.19
Loughborough Lightning
1.85

Sporting Khalsa W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sporting Khalsa W
2.67
Loughborough Lightning
1.86

allows per match

Sporting Khalsa W
1.83
Loughborough Lightning
1.71

finishing

Sporting Khalsa W+0.00on par
Loughborough Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Khalsa W ↓

Loughborough Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Sporting Khalsa W or draw
67%
Sporting Khalsa W or Loughborough Lightning
79%
Draw or Loughborough Lightning
54%

Winning margin

Sporting Khalsa W wins by 2+
27%
Loughborough Lightning wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sporting Khalsa W 1+ goals
89%
Sporting Khalsa W 2+ goals
64%
Sporting Khalsa W 3+ goals
37%
Loughborough Lightning 1+ goals
84%
Loughborough Lightning 2+ goals
55%
Loughborough Lightning 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sporting Khalsa W (draw refunded)
58%
Loughborough Lightning (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Khalsa W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Loughborough Lightning away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Khalsa W attack 2.67 + Loughborough Lightning defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Loughborough Lightning attack 1.86 + Sporting Khalsa W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Khalsa W scores more
46%
level
21%
Loughborough Lightning scores more
33%

Sporting Khalsa W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Khalsa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sporting Khalsa W 1–1 Loughborough Lightning

Sporting Khalsa W and Loughborough Lightning drew 1-1 in FA Women's Cup on October 26, 2025.