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Sporting Khalsa W vs Crewe Alexandra LFC W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sporting Khalsa W
Sporting Khalsa W
FT
3 – 0
Crewe Alexandra LFC W
Crewe Alexandra LFC W
11/12/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Dell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Khalsa W57%
×Draw18%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Khalsa W
2.67
Crewe Alexandra LFC W
1.75

Sporting Khalsa W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sporting Khalsa W
2.67
Crewe Alexandra LFC W
1.67

allows per match

Sporting Khalsa W
1.83
Crewe Alexandra LFC W
2.67

finishing

Sporting Khalsa W+0.00on par
Crewe Alexandra LFC W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Khalsa W ↓

Crewe Alexandra LFC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sporting Khalsa W or draw
75%
Sporting Khalsa W or Crewe Alexandra LFC W
82%
Draw or Crewe Alexandra LFC W
43%

Winning margin

Sporting Khalsa W wins by 2+
37%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sporting Khalsa W 1+ goals
93%
Sporting Khalsa W 2+ goals
74%
Sporting Khalsa W 3+ goals
49%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W 1+ goals
83%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W 2+ goals
52%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sporting Khalsa W (draw refunded)
70%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Khalsa W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Crewe Alexandra LFC W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Khalsa W attack 2.67 + Crewe Alexandra LFC W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Crewe Alexandra LFC W attack 1.67 + Sporting Khalsa W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sporting Khalsa W scores more
57%
level
18%
Crewe Alexandra LFC W scores more
25%

Sporting Khalsa W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sporting Khalsa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sporting Khalsa W 3–0 Crewe Alexandra LFC W

Sporting Khalsa W beat Crewe Alexandra LFC W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at The Dell Stadium in Dudley, West Midlands.