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Sporting Khalsa W vs Boldmere St. Michaels W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sporting Khalsa W
Sporting Khalsa W
FT
2 – 1
Boldmere St. Michaels W
Boldmere St. Michaels W
11/13/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundGuardian Warehousing Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sporting Khalsa W52%
×Draw19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Khalsa W
2.48
Boldmere St. Michaels W
1.85

Sporting Khalsa W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sporting Khalsa W
2.67
Boldmere St. Michaels W
1.86

allows per match

Sporting Khalsa W
1.83
Boldmere St. Michaels W
2.29

finishing

Sporting Khalsa W+0.00on par
Boldmere St. Michaels W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Khalsa W ↓

Boldmere St. Michaels W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Sporting Khalsa W or draw
71%
Sporting Khalsa W or Boldmere St. Michaels W
81%
Draw or Boldmere St. Michaels W
48%

Winning margin

Sporting Khalsa W wins by 2+
32%
Boldmere St. Michaels W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting Khalsa W 1+ goals
92%
Sporting Khalsa W 2+ goals
70%
Sporting Khalsa W 3+ goals
44%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 1+ goals
84%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 2+ goals
55%
Boldmere St. Michaels W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sporting Khalsa W (draw refunded)
64%
Boldmere St. Michaels W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Khalsa W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Boldmere St. Michaels W away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Khalsa W attack 2.67 + Boldmere St. Michaels W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.48

Boldmere St. Michaels W attack 1.86 + Sporting Khalsa W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting Khalsa W scores more
52%
level
19%
Boldmere St. Michaels W scores more
29%

Sporting Khalsa W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting Khalsa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sporting Khalsa W 2–1 Boldmere St. Michaels W

Sporting Khalsa W beat Boldmere St. Michaels W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Guardian Warehousing Arena in Willenhall, West Midlands.