Sporting KC II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II — MLS Next Pro 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 48+ matches
Sporting KC II42%
Vancouver Whitecaps II36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 52 home / 48 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sporting KC II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches
Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94
Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Sporting KC II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Columbus Crew II
Toronto II
Rochester Rhinos
Bethlehem Steel
New York City II
Fort Lauderdale CF
New England II
Chicago FC United
Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati II
Tacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC II
North Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United IIWhitecaps II
Colorado Rapids IISwope Park Rangers
Real Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sporting KC II host Vancouver Whitecaps II on Saturday, 3 August 2024 at 00:00. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Sporting KC II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II
Sporting KC II and Vancouver Whitecaps II drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on August 3, 2024.
Goals: M. Goumballe (40' pen, 120+8' pen), N. Fleuriau Chateau (45+5' pen, 120+2' pen), E. Bryant (120+1' pen), M. Morgan (120+4' pen), R. Avila (120+5' pen), B. Sjöberg (120+7' pen), D. Flores (120+9' pen), M. Simmons (120+10' pen), L. Mackenzie (120+12' pen).
The match was played at Rock Chalk Park in Lawrence, Kansas.