Sporting KC II 2–1 Tulsa Roughnecks: Result & Stats

Sporting KC II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tulsa Roughnecks

H. Barry 79'

Wan Kuzain 27'

M. Gamble 15'

8/30/2018

USL Championship · Round 44Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Sporting KC II44%

×Draw24%

Tulsa Roughnecks32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting KC IIExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.42

Sporting KC II

1.69

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.42

Sporting KC II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 131 away

1.58

creates per match

1.19

1.64

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sporting KC II

1.58

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Sporting KC II

1.64

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw

68%

Sporting KC II or Tulsa Roughnecks

76%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

56%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

23%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

82%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

50%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

76%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

41%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

58%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.80 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.58 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Sporting KC II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting KC II scores more

44%

level

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

32%

Sporting KC II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Gamble

27'

Wan Kuzain

57'

R. Akhmatov← F. Hernandez

61'

E. Vanacore-Decker← W. Little

61'

J. Rivas← D. Dean

79'

H. Barry↳ G. Busio

83'

B. Rebellón← G. Busio

89'

U. Tayou← P. Gee

Sporting

Tulsa

12

3

82

14

2

▼

57

81

7

9

⚽

Gamble

27

Ferreira

16

▼

18

44

2

26

16

49

▼

Little

85

▼

Hernandez

75

⚽

Kuzain

36

Blackwood

92

⚽

Barry

13

A

▼

Busio

Manager: Paulo Nagamura

57'▲R. Akhmatov←▼F. Hernandez

61'▲E. Vanacore-Decker←▼W. Little

83'▲B. Rebellón←▼G. Busio

Sporting KC II substitutes

95Akhmatov91Vanacore-Decker33Rebellón96Harris98Cruz88Lewis79Herrera

Manager: M. Nsien

61'▲J. Rivas←▼D. Dean

89'▲U. Tayou←▼P. Gee

Tulsa Roughnecks substitutes

11Rivas70Tayou19Rodriguez29Gentry25Díaz42Smith5Jusino