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Sporting KC II vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
3/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4Shawnee Mission South District Stadium (Overland Park, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sporting KC II55%
×Draw22%
Seattle Sounders II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.98
Seattle Sounders II
1.23

Sporting KC II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
76%
Sporting KC II or Seattle Sounders II
78%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
45%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
32%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
86%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
59%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
31%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
71%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
35%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
70%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.98

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
55%
level
22%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
24%

Sporting KC II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting KC II 4 – 2 Seattle Sounders II

Sporting KC II beat Seattle Sounders II 4-2 in USL Championship on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Shawnee Mission South District Stadium (Overland Park, Kansas).