Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting KC II vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Louisville City
Louisville City
7/29/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 22Children's Mercy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sporting KC II31%
×Draw24%
Louisville City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.32
Louisville City
1.61

Louisville City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
56%
Sporting KC II or Louisville City
76%
Draw or Louisville City
69%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
14%
Louisville City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
73%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
38%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
15%
Louisville City 1+ goals
80%
Louisville City 2+ goals
48%
Louisville City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
42%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.32

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
31%
level
24%
Louisville City scores more
44%

Louisville City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Sporting KC II 1–2 Louisville City

Louisville City beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in USL Championship on July 29, 2021.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.