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Sporting KC II vs Los Angeles FC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Los Angeles FC II
Los Angeles FC II
10/6/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 41Children's Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sporting KC II43%
×Draw21%
Los Angeles FC II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.98
Los Angeles FC II
1.78

Sporting KC II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.60
Los Angeles FC II
1.42

allows per match

Sporting KC II
2.15
Los Angeles FC II
2.36

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Los Angeles FC II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Los Angeles FC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
65%
Sporting KC II or Los Angeles FC II
79%
Draw or Los Angeles FC II
57%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
24%
Los Angeles FC II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
86%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
59%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
31%
Los Angeles FC II 1+ goals
83%
Los Angeles FC II 2+ goals
53%
Los Angeles FC II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
55%
Los Angeles FC II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

Los Angeles FC II away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + Los Angeles FC II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Los Angeles FC II attack 1.42 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
43%
level
21%
Los Angeles FC II scores more
35%

Sporting KC II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Sporting KC II 4–3 Los Angeles FC II

Sporting KC II beat Los Angeles FC II 4-3 in MLS Next Pro on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Victory Field in Kansas City, Missouri.