Sporting KC II 1–4 Colorado Rapids II

Sporting KC II

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Colorado Rapids II

6/1/2025

MLS Next Pro · Round 15Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sporting KC II37%

×Draw22%

Colorado Rapids II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting KC IIExpected goals in this matchColorado Rapids II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.93

Sporting KC II

1.80

Colorado Rapids II

1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

1.60

creates per match

1.71

2.15

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sporting KC II

1.60

Colorado Rapids II

1.71

allows per match

Sporting KC II

2.15

Colorado Rapids II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Colorado Rapids II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw

58%

Sporting KC II or Colorado Rapids II

78%

Draw or Colorado Rapids II

63%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

19%

Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

83%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

54%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

27%

Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals

85%

Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals

57%

Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

47%

Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

Colorado Rapids II away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + Colorado Rapids II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.71 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting KC II scores more

37%

level

22%

Colorado Rapids II scores more

42%

Colorado Rapids II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Colorado Rapids II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff