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Sporting KC II vs Chicago Fire II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
9/10/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 35Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sporting KC II39%
×Draw21%
Chicago Fire II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.95
Chicago Fire II
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.60
Chicago Fire II
1.84

allows per match

Sporting KC II
2.15
Chicago Fire II
2.29

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
60%
Sporting KC II or Chicago Fire II
79%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
61%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
21%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
86%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
58%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
31%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
86%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
59%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
49%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.15 · 52 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.60 + Chicago Fire II defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.95

Chicago Fire II attack 1.84 + Sporting KC II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
39%
level
21%
Chicago Fire II scores more
40%

Chicago Fire II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Sporting KC II 2–3 Chicago Fire II

Chicago Fire II beat Sporting KC II 3-2 in MLS Next Pro on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Mercy Victory Field in Kansas City, Missouri.