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Sporting Kansas City vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
4/30/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 14Children's Mercy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Sporting Kansas City38%
×Draw24%
CF Montreal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Kansas City
1.59
CF Montreal
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sporting Kansas City
1.42
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Sporting Kansas City
1.81
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Sporting Kansas City-0.01on par
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Kansas City ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sporting Kansas City or draw
62%
Sporting Kansas City or CF Montreal
76%
Draw or CF Montreal
62%

Winning margin

Sporting Kansas City wins by 2+
19%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sporting Kansas City 1+ goals
80%
Sporting Kansas City 2+ goals
47%
Sporting Kansas City 3+ goals
21%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
80%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
47%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sporting Kansas City (draw refunded)
50%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Kansas City at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Kansas City attack 1.42 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Sporting Kansas City defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sporting Kansas City scores more
38%
level
24%
CF Montreal scores more
38%

Sporting Kansas City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting Kansas City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Kansas City vs CF Montreal

CF Montreal beat Sporting Kansas City 2-0 in Major League Soccer on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.