Sporting Huelva W 1–3 Tacón W: Result & Stats

Sporting Huelva W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Tacón W

1/19/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 17Campo Federativo de la Orden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sporting Huelva W48%

×Draw22%

Tacón W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Huelva WExpected goals in this matchTacón W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.45

Sporting Huelva W

1.90

Tacón W

1.45

Sporting Huelva W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 10 away

0.99

creates per match

1.50

1.40

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W

0.99

Tacón W

1.50

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W

1.40

Tacón W

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Tacón W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Tacón W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw

70%

Sporting Huelva W or Tacón W

78%

Draw or Tacón W

52%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

27%

Tacón W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

85%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

56%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

29%

Tacón W 1+ goals

77%

Tacón W 2+ goals

42%

Tacón W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

62%

Tacón W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Tacón W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Tacón W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Tacón W attack 1.50 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more

48%

level

22%

Tacón W scores more

30%

Sporting Huelva W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff