Sporting Huelva W 1–2 FC Levante Badalona W

Sporting Huelva W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Levante Badalona W

Patri Ojeda 88' (pen)

Laura Martínez 77'

A. Lahmari 63'

5/5/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 26Ciudad Deportiva Decáno del Fútbol Español

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sporting Huelva W43%

×Draw26%

FC Levante Badalona W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Huelva WExpected goals in this matchFC Levante Badalona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.16

Sporting Huelva W

1.44

FC Levante Badalona W

1.16

Sporting Huelva W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 60 away

0.94

creates per match

0.88

1.43

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W

0.94

FC Levante Badalona W

0.88

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W

1.43

FC Levante Badalona W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw

70%

Sporting Huelva W or FC Levante Badalona W

74%

Draw or FC Levante Badalona W

57%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

21%

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

18%

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

69%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

32%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

59%

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.43 · 88 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.94 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more

43%

level

26%

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

30%

Sporting Huelva W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Lahmari

FC Levante Badalona W · M

7.6

Match Events

22'

Yasmin Katie Mrabet

45'

Ghizlane Chebbak

46'

Laura Martínez← Bárbara Latorre

52'

Raiderlin Carrasco

57'

L. Gustafsson← P. Hmírová

63'

A. Lahmari

64'

D. Čonč← J. Martínez

64'

Cristina Baudet← G. Chebbak

68'

Patri Ojeda← Ana Carol

73'

M. Nicoli← Berta Bou

77'

Laura Martínez

80'

R. Dybdahl← Bárbara López

80'

Y. Correa← R. Carrasco

81'

Cienfu← Sandra Castelló

81'

Pilar Garrote← A. Lahmari

88'

Patri OjedaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingFC

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots10

4Corners7

5Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target4

4Off Target5

1Blocked1

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

359Total Passes359

227Accurate Passes251

63%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

5Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4