Sporting Huelva W 3–1 Edf Logrono W: Result & Stats

Sporting Huelva W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Edf Logrono W

Fatoumata Kanteh 87'

M. Ramírez 73'

Dany Helena 16'

Judith Luzuriaga 26'

5/9/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 29Campo Federativo de la Orden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sporting Huelva W45%

×Draw26%

Edf Logrono W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Huelva WExpected goals in this matchEdf Logrono W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.16

Sporting Huelva W

1.50

Edf Logrono W

1.16

Sporting Huelva W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 57 away

0.99

creates per match

0.91

1.40

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Sporting Huelva W

0.99

Edf Logrono W

0.91

allows per match

Sporting Huelva W

1.40

Edf Logrono W

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Huelva W+0.00on par

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Huelva W ↓

Edf Logrono W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Huelva W or draw

71%

Sporting Huelva W or Edf Logrono W

74%

Draw or Edf Logrono W

55%

Winning margin

Sporting Huelva W wins by 2+

22%

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sporting Huelva W 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Huelva W 2+ goals

44%

Sporting Huelva W 3+ goals

19%

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

69%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

32%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Huelva W (draw refunded)

61%

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Huelva W at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 92 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Huelva W attack 0.99 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.50

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Sporting Huelva W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting Huelva W scores more

45%

level

26%

Edf Logrono W scores more

29%

Sporting Huelva W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting Huelva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Dany Helena↳ Y. Tanaka

26'

Judith Luzuriaga↳ J. Tavlo-Petersson

37'

F. Kanteh Cham

58'

M. Cazalla

63'

Jade Boho← I. Guehai

65'

C. Falknor← Y. Tanaka

68'

R. Elloh← L. Lundin

73'

M. Ramírez↳ C. Falknor

78'

S. Fishley← LaiaBalleste

78'

Valeria Pascuet← Judith Luzuriaga

87'

Fatoumata Kanteh↳ M. Ramírez

90+2'

M. T. Ramirez

90+3'

R. Elloh

90+4'

C. Ashurst

Sporting

Edf

1

Tajonar

4

Cazalla

22

Caracas

28

▼

LaiaBalle

19

A

14

12

20

18

▼

Lundin

15

▼

Guehai

7

⚽

▼

1

3

5

16

15

18

A

▼

Tanaka

4

Santana

10

Fisher

11

⚽

Helena

9

⚽A

Ramírez

8

⚽

Kanteh

Manager: Antonio

65'▲C. Falknor←▼Y. Tanaka

Sporting Huelva W substitutes

7Falknor17Bernal13Buhigas21Gey14García23Begič12Morilla20García

Manager: José Moncayo

63'▲Jade Boho←▼I. Guehai

68'▲R. Elloh←▼L. Lundin

78'▲S. Fishley←▼LaiaBalleste

78'▲Valeria Pascuet←▼Judith Luzuriaga

Edf Logrono W substitutes

9Boho10Elloh6Fishley25Pascuet13Longa16Nyman17Pizarro

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Edf Logrono W

Sporting Huelva W beat Edf Logrono W 3-1 in Primera División Femenina on May 9, 2021.

Goals: Dany Helena (16'), Judith Luzuriaga (26'), M. Ramírez (73'), Fatoumata Kanteh (87').

The match was played at Campo Federativo de la Orden in Huelva.

Sporting Huelva W vs Edf Logrono W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Huelva W vs Edf Logrono W