Sporting Hasselt vs Spouwen-Mopertingen — League #487 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Sporting Hasselt51%
Spouwen-Mopertingen22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sporting Hasselt creates 73% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sporting Hasselt ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sporting Hasselt at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches
Spouwen-Mopertingen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sporting Hasselt attack 1.80 + Spouwen-Mopertingen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40
Spouwen-Mopertingen attack 0.83 + Sporting Hasselt defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Sporting Hasselt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Sporting Hasselt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsSporting Hasselt
Stockay-Warfusée
Excelsior Virton
Albert Quévy-Mons
Union Saint-Gilloise II
Sporting Charleroi II
Tubize
Thes Sport
Rochefort
MeuxSpouwen-Mopertingen
Habay-la-Neuve
Crossing Schaerbeek
Union Namur
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
Dessel Sport
Cercle Brugge II
Standard Liège II
Zelzate
Merelbeke
Hoogstraten
Roeselare Daisel
Ninove
Diegem Sport
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
Knokke
Houtvenne
TienenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sporting Hasselt host Spouwen-Mopertingen on Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the League #487 2026/2027 season.
League #487: Sporting Hasselt 0–0 Spouwen-Mopertingen
Sporting Hasselt and Spouwen-Mopertingen drew 0-0 in League #487 on October 26, 2024.
The match was played at Stedelijk Sportstadion in Hasselt.