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Sporting Gijon vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reus
Reus
10/13/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sporting Gijon49%
×Draw30%
Reus20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijon
1.21
Reus
0.66

Sporting Gijon creates 83% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijon
1.31
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Sporting Gijon
0.93
Reus
1.10

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw
80%
Sporting Gijon or Reus
70%
Draw or Reus
51%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
22%
Reus wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
70%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
34%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
12%
Reus 1+ goals
48%
Reus 2+ goals
14%
Reus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
71%
Reus (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.93 · 169 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.31 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Reus attack 0.38 + Sporting Gijon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more
49%
level
30%
Reus scores more
20%

Sporting Gijon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Gijon vs Reus

Sporting Gijon and Reus drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini in Gijon.