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Sporting Gijón II vs Real Titánico — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Real Titánico
Real Titánico
5/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sporting Gijón II70%
×Draw19%
Real Titánico12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
2.13
Real Titánico
0.73

Sporting Gijón II creates 192% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 97 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
2.42
Real Titánico
0.92

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
0.54
Real Titánico
1.84

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Real Titánico+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Real Titánico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
88%
Sporting Gijón II or Real Titánico
81%
Draw or Real Titánico
30%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
45%
Real Titánico wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
88%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
63%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
35%
Real Titánico 1+ goals
52%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
17%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
86%
Real Titánico (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Real Titánico away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Real Titánico defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.13

Real Titánico attack 0.92 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
70%
level
19%
Real Titánico scores more
12%

Sporting Gijón II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Real Titánico

Sporting Gijón II beat Real Titánico 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.