Sporting Gijón II 1–1 Marino de Luanco

Sporting Gijón II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Marino de Luanco

Álvaro Santamaría 70'

Mendi 39'

12/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sporting Gijón II55%

×Draw24%

Marino de Luanco20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchMarino de Luanco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.90

Sporting Gijón II

1.66

Marino de Luanco

0.90

Sporting Gijón II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.63

creates per match

0.69

1.11

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.63

Marino de Luanco

0.69

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.11

Marino de Luanco

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Marino de Luanco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

80%

Sporting Gijón II or Marino de Luanco

76%

Draw or Marino de Luanco

45%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

30%

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

49%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

23%

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

59%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

23%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

73%

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

55%

level

24%

Marino de Luanco scores more

20%

Sporting Gijón II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Nino← Lora

39'

Mendi

57'

Lucas Suárez← Mateo Arellano

57'

Pelayo Pérez← Pelayo Morilla

58'

Sergio Orviz← Álex Arias

70'

Álvaro Santamaría

74'

Dani Queipo← César García

76'

Enol Rodríguez← César Suárez

90+1'

Iván Elena← Enol Coto

Sporting

Marino

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Samuel Baños

57'▲Lucas Suárez←▼Mateo Arellano

57'▲Pelayo Pérez←▼Pelayo Morilla

74'▲Dani Queipo←▼César García

90+1'▲Iván Elena←▼Enol Coto

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

SuárezPérezQueipoElenaArgüellesBozaCuervo

Manager: Oli

29'▲Nino←▼Lora

58'▲Sergio Orviz←▼Álex Arias

76'▲Enol Rodríguez←▼César Suárez

Marino de Luanco substitutes

NinoOrvizRodríguezRodríguezBuruCastellanoTrabanco

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Marino de Luanco

Sporting Gijón II and Marino de Luanco drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 12, 2020.

Goals: Mendi (39'), Álvaro Santamaría (70').

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.

Sporting Gijón II vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Marino de Luanco