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Sporting Gijón II vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lenense
Lenense
1/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sporting Gijón II70%
×Draw19%
Lenense11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
2.06
Lenense
0.65

Sporting Gijón II creates 217% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
2.42
Lenense
0.76

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
0.54
Lenense
1.71

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Lenense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
89%
Sporting Gijón II or Lenense
81%
Draw or Lenense
30%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
45%
Lenense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
61%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
34%
Lenense 1+ goals
48%
Lenense 2+ goals
14%
Lenense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
87%
Lenense (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lenense attack 0.76 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
70%
level
19%
Lenense scores more
11%

Sporting Gijón II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting Gijón II 2 – 0 Lenense

Sporting Gijón II beat Lenense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 26, 2022.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.