Lenense 2–0 Sporting Gijón II: Result & Stats

Lenense

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijón II

Jandro 84'

Lucas Rodríguez 52'

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Lenense28%

×Draw27%

Sporting Gijón II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.36

Lenense

1.02

Sporting Gijón II

1.36

Sporting Gijón II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 86 away

1.27

creates per match

1.41

1.32

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Sporting Gijón II

1.41

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Sporting Gijón II

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

55%

Lenense or Sporting Gijón II

73%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

72%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

10%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

64%

Lenense 2+ goals

27%

Lenense 3+ goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

39%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

39%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lenense scores more

28%

level

27%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

45%

Sporting Gijón II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Guillermo Vaamonde← Berto Fernández

52'

Lucas Rodríguez

55'

E. Lozano← Enol Prendes

55'

Cristian Acerete← Diego Boza

70'

J. Mancha← K. Picón

70'

Cristian Ebea← Sergio Dacal

79'

Jandro← Lucas Rodríguez

81'

Borja Montes← Óscar Castro

84'

Jandro

85'

Pablo Coutado← Borja Sierra

90'

Diego Aldariz← Dani Pérez

Lenense

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rodríguez

Monasteri

Manager: Héctor Suárez

46'▲Guillermo Vaamonde←▼Berto Fernández

79'▲Jandro←▼Lucas Rodríguez

85'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Borja Sierra

90'▲Diego Aldariz←▼Dani Pérez

Lenense substitutes

VaamondeJandroCoutadoAldariz

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

55'▲E. Lozano←▼Enol Prendes

55'▲Cristian Acerete←▼Diego Boza

70'▲J. Mancha←▼K. Picón

70'▲Cristian Ebea←▼Sergio Dacal

81'▲Borja Montes←▼Óscar Castro

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

LozanoAcereteManchaEbeaMontes

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 2–0 Sporting Gijón II

Lenense beat Sporting Gijón II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 3, 2024.

Goals: Lucas Rodríguez (52'), Jandro (84').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 2–0 Sporting Gijón II