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Sporting Gijón II vs L'Entregu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
L'Entregu
L'Entregu
10/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sporting Gijón II58%
×Draw23%
L'Entregu19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
1.79
L'Entregu
0.90

Sporting Gijón II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 112 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
2.42
L'Entregu
1.26

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
0.54
L'Entregu
1.16

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
L'Entregu+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

L'Entregu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
81%
Sporting Gijón II or L'Entregu
77%
Draw or L'Entregu
42%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
33%
L'Entregu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
83%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
53%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
26%
L'Entregu 1+ goals
59%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
23%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
76%
L'Entregu (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

L'Entregu away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + L'Entregu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.79

L'Entregu attack 1.26 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
58%
level
23%
L'Entregu scores more
19%

Sporting Gijón II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Sporting Gijón II 4–0 L'Entregu

Sporting Gijón II beat L'Entregu 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.