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L'Entregu vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

L'Entregu
L'Entregu
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
11/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

L'Entregu33%
×Draw28%
Sporting Gijón II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Entregu
1.08
Sporting Gijón II
1.20

Sporting Gijón II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 86 away

creates per match

L'Entregu
1.37
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

L'Entregu
0.99
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw
61%
L'Entregu or Sporting Gijón II
72%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
67%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+
13%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals
66%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
29%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
10%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
70%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
34%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)
46%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

L'Entregu scores more
33%
level
28%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
39%

Sporting Gijón II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: L'Entregu 1–4 Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat L'Entregu 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.