Sporting Gijón II 0–2 Ibiza: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijón II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza

D. Mendoza 83' (pen)

Ángel Rodado 53'

10/6/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sporting Gijón II36%

×Draw28%

Ibiza36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchIbiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.16

Sporting Gijón II

1.17

Ibiza

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.21

1.11

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.63

Ibiza

1.21

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.11

Ibiza

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Ibiza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

64%

Sporting Gijón II or Ibiza

72%

Draw or Ibiza

64%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

15%

Ibiza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

69%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

33%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

11%

Ibiza 1+ goals

69%

Ibiza 2+ goals

32%

Ibiza 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

50%

Ibiza (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Ibiza away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Ibiza defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ibiza attack 1.21 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

36%

level

28%

Ibiza scores more

36%

Sporting Gijón II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Ángel Rodado

62'

Pablo García← César García

63'

K. Sibo← Pep Caballé

70'

D. Mendoza← Ángel Rodado

74'

Daniel Sandoval← Garci

76'

S. Bellini← Chiki

82'

Fran Carbià← Kike López

83'

D. MendozaPenalty

Sporting

Ibiza

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Samuel Baños

62'▲Pablo García←▼César García

74'▲Daniel Sandoval←▼Garci

76'▲S. Bellini←▼Chiki

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

GarcíaSandovalBelliniCoboJiménezMorillaSuárez

Manager: Pablo Alfaro

63'▲K. Sibo←▼Pep Caballé

70'▲D. Mendoza←▼Ángel Rodado

82'▲Fran Carbià←▼Kike López

Ibiza substitutes

SiboMendozaCarbiàQuintanillaCirioParreñoLara