Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting Gijón II vs Coruxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coruxo
Coruxo
9/15/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sporting Gijón II54%
×Draw25%
Coruxo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
1.65
Coruxo
0.95

Sporting Gijón II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
1.63
Coruxo
0.78

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
1.11
Coruxo
1.67

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Coruxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
78%
Sporting Gijón II or Coruxo
75%
Draw or Coruxo
46%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
29%
Coruxo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
81%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
49%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
23%
Coruxo 1+ goals
61%
Coruxo 2+ goals
25%
Coruxo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
71%
Coruxo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Coruxo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Coruxo attack 0.78 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
54%
level
25%
Coruxo scores more
22%

Sporting Gijón II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Sporting Gijón II 0–1 Coruxo

Coruxo beat Sporting Gijón II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Leorio-Gijón.