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Sporting Gijón II vs Condal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Condal
Condal
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sporting Gijón II72%
×Draw18%
Condal9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
2.09
Condal
0.60

Sporting Gijón II creates 248% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
2.42
Condal
0.66

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
0.54
Condal
1.77

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Condal+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Condal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
91%
Sporting Gijón II or Condal
82%
Draw or Condal
28%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
47%
Condal wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
88%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
62%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
34%
Condal 1+ goals
45%
Condal 2+ goals
12%
Condal 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
88%
Condal (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Condal away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Condal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.09

Condal attack 0.66 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
72%
level
18%
Condal scores more
9%

Sporting Gijón II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Sporting Gijón II 5–1 Condal

Sporting Gijón II beat Condal 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.