Sporting Gijón II 2–0 Caudal: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijón II

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Caudal

1/19/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sporting Gijón II55%

×Draw24%

Caudal21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchCaudal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.95

Sporting Gijón II

1.69

Caudal

0.95

Sporting Gijón II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 113 away

2.42

creates per match

1.35

0.54

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

2.42

Caudal

1.35

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

0.54

Caudal

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Caudal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Caudal →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

79%

Sporting Gijón II or Caudal

76%

Draw or Caudal

45%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

30%

Caudal wins by 2+

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

82%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

50%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

24%

Caudal 1+ goals

61%

Caudal 2+ goals

25%

Caudal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

72%

Caudal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Caudal away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Caudal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Caudal attack 1.35 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

55%

level

24%

Caudal scores more

21%

Sporting Gijón II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Sporting Gijón II 2–0 Caudal

Sporting Gijón II beat Caudal 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.

Sporting Gijón II vs Caudal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Sporting Gijón II 2–0 Caudal