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Sporting Gijón II vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
CANC
00:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
3/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sporting Gijón II40%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
1.43
Atlético Madrid II
1.29

Sporting Gijón II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
1.63
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
1.11
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
66%
Sporting Gijón II or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
60%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
76%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
42%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
54%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
40%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
34%

Sporting Gijón II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting Gijón II vs Atlético Madrid II — Match Preview

Sporting Gijón II face Atlético Madrid II on March 15, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sporting Gijón II host Atlético Madrid II at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.