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Sporting Gagnoa vs San-Pédro — Ligue 1 2019

Sporting Gagnoa
Sporting Gagnoa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San-Pédro
San-Pédro
5/18/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade Victor Biaka Boda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sporting Gagnoa32%
×Draw29%
San-Pédro39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gagnoa
1.05
San-Pédro
1.19

San-Pédro creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sporting Gagnoa
1.15
San-Pédro
1.35

allows per match

Sporting Gagnoa
1.02
San-Pédro
0.96

finishing

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par
San-Pédro+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gagnoa ↓

San-Pédro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting Gagnoa or draw
61%
Sporting Gagnoa or San-Pédro
71%
Draw or San-Pédro
68%

Winning margin

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+
12%
San-Pédro wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals
65%
Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals
28%
Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals
9%
San-Pédro 1+ goals
70%
San-Pédro 2+ goals
33%
San-Pédro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)
45%
San-Pédro (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gagnoa at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

San-Pédro away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gagnoa attack 1.15 + San-Pédro defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

San-Pédro attack 1.35 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting Gagnoa scores more
32%
level
29%
San-Pédro scores more
39%

San-Pédro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San-Pédro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sporting Gagnoa 1–1 San-Pédro

Sporting Gagnoa and San-Pédro drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Victor Biaka Boda in Ouragahio, Gagnoa.