Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting Gagnoa vs Issia Wazi — Ligue 1 2019

Sporting Gagnoa
Sporting Gagnoa
FT
0 – 0
Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
12/14/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Victor Biaka Boda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sporting Gagnoa42%
×Draw28%
Issia Wazi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gagnoa
1.27
Issia Wazi
1.01

Sporting Gagnoa creates 26% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sporting Gagnoa
1.15
Issia Wazi
1.00

allows per match

Sporting Gagnoa
1.02
Issia Wazi
1.40

finishing

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par
Issia Wazi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gagnoa ↓

Issia Wazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting Gagnoa or draw
71%
Sporting Gagnoa or Issia Wazi
72%
Draw or Issia Wazi
58%

Winning margin

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+
19%
Issia Wazi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals
72%
Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals
36%
Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals
14%
Issia Wazi 1+ goals
64%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
27%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)
59%
Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gagnoa at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

Issia Wazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gagnoa attack 1.15 + Issia Wazi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Issia Wazi attack 1.00 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting Gagnoa scores more
42%
level
28%
Issia Wazi scores more
29%

Sporting Gagnoa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting Gagnoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sporting Gagnoa 0–0 Issia Wazi

Sporting Gagnoa and Issia Wazi drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Victor Biaka Boda in Ouragahio, Gagnoa.