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Sporting Gagnoa vs ASEC Mimosas — Ligue 1 2019

Sporting Gagnoa
Sporting Gagnoa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ASEC Mimosas
ASEC Mimosas
11/20/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Victor Biaka Boda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sporting Gagnoa28%
×Draw29%
ASEC Mimosas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gagnoa
0.91
ASEC Mimosas
1.22

ASEC Mimosas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 89 away

creates per match

Sporting Gagnoa
1.15
ASEC Mimosas
1.42

allows per match

Sporting Gagnoa
1.02
ASEC Mimosas
0.66

finishing

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par
ASEC Mimosas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gagnoa ↓

ASEC Mimosas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Gagnoa or draw
57%
Sporting Gagnoa or ASEC Mimosas
71%
Draw or ASEC Mimosas
72%

Winning margin

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+
9%
ASEC Mimosas wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals
60%
Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals
23%
Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals
6%
ASEC Mimosas 1+ goals
70%
ASEC Mimosas 2+ goals
34%
ASEC Mimosas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)
39%
ASEC Mimosas (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gagnoa at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

ASEC Mimosas away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gagnoa attack 1.15 + ASEC Mimosas defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

ASEC Mimosas attack 1.42 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting Gagnoa scores more
28%
level
29%
ASEC Mimosas scores more
43%

ASEC Mimosas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASEC Mimosas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Gagnoa vs ASEC Mimosas

ASEC Mimosas beat Sporting Gagnoa 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Victor Biaka Boda in Ouragahio, Gagnoa.