Sporting Gagnoa 1–2 Abengourou: Result & Stats

Sporting Gagnoa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Abengourou

6/11/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade de Bouaké

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sporting Gagnoa47%

×Draw28%

Abengourou25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GagnoaExpected goals in this matchAbengourou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.87

Sporting Gagnoa

1.32

Abengourou

0.87

Sporting Gagnoa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 57 away

1.15

creates per match

0.72

1.02

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sporting Gagnoa

1.15

Abengourou

0.72

allows per match

Sporting Gagnoa

1.02

Abengourou

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Abengourou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gagnoa ↓

Abengourou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Gagnoa or draw

75%

Sporting Gagnoa or Abengourou

72%

Draw or Abengourou

53%

Winning margin

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+

22%

Abengourou wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals

73%

Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals

38%

Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals

15%

Abengourou 1+ goals

58%

Abengourou 2+ goals

22%

Abengourou 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)

66%

Abengourou (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gagnoa at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

Abengourou away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gagnoa attack 1.15 + Abengourou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Abengourou attack 0.72 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting Gagnoa scores more

47%

level

28%

Abengourou scores more

25%

Sporting Gagnoa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting Gagnoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff