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Sporting de Cabinda vs Wiliete — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wiliete
Wiliete
4/22/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 26Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda35%
×Draw30%
Wiliete36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
1.04
Wiliete
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.07
Wiliete
0.95

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.18
Wiliete
1.02

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Wiliete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
64%
Sporting de Cabinda or Wiliete
70%
Draw or Wiliete
65%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
13%
Wiliete wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
65%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
28%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
9%
Wiliete 1+ goals
65%
Wiliete 2+ goals
29%
Wiliete 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
49%
Wiliete (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 67 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.07 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
35%
level
30%
Wiliete scores more
36%

Wiliete at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sporting de Cabinda 1–2 Wiliete

Wiliete beat Sporting de Cabinda 2-1 in Girabola on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.