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Sporting de Cabinda vs União de Malanje — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
2 – 1
União de Malanje
União de Malanje
12/16/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 8Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda55%
×Draw25%
União de Malanje20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
1.56
União de Malanje
0.83

Sporting de Cabinda creates 88% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.05
União de Malanje
0.50

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.17
União de Malanje
2.07

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
União de Malanje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

União de Malanje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
80%
Sporting de Cabinda or União de Malanje
75%
Draw or União de Malanje
45%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
29%
União de Malanje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
79%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
46%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
21%
União de Malanje 1+ goals
56%
União de Malanje 2+ goals
20%
União de Malanje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
73%
União de Malanje (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

União de Malanje away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.05 + União de Malanje defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.56

União de Malanje attack 0.50 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
55%
level
25%
União de Malanje scores more
20%

Sporting de Cabinda at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sporting de Cabinda 2–1 União de Malanje

Sporting de Cabinda beat União de Malanje 2-1 in Girabola on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.